We could never take anything but a long-term view in wealth management, which means correctly reading the general trend in equities, fixed income, property, commodities and currencies. The first essential step in this process consists in analysing the momentum of business activity and inflation in the major economic areas (the United States, Europe, Japan and the emerging markets).
Scope for investing safely
By knowing the probable slope of the business cycle and the CPI, it is possible to ride the long-term trend in the various asset classes accordingly. When an economic boom is taking shape, it is time to invest in the equity segments and other securities that will generate the most profits. Conversely (and of equal importance in wealth management), a looming recession or period of deflation calls for a hedge against a stockmarket sell-off. In short, grasping the major macro trends is an excellent way to invest safely with a long-term view. To achieve this our team of economists uses a highly eclectic approach, drawing on information reported by research institutes, central banks, other financial institutions and pollsters the world over.
Acquire expertise in many segments
The data we collect is incorporated in econometric models that enable us to anticipate the trends of the five major asset classes objectively, without any preconceived ideas. The expertise and experience of our teams round out this factual research, providing the depth needed to take decisions. In the words of John Maynard Keynes, one of the founding fathers of contemporary macroeconomics, an economist has to be "mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher—in some degree. (...) He must be (...) as aloof and incorruptible as an artist, yet sometimes as near to earth as a politician."
Understanding the reactions of financial markets
The fundamental analysis conducted by our economists in the Investment Research Dept is the result of long collaboration. It forms the groundwork for stock and bond picking and also serves as a roadmap for our account managers. Our Strategy Committee uses it to determine the asset allocation that is best suited to preserving your wealth and making it grow.
Our economists write on current developments in a weekly newsletter called Macro Highlights & Strategy and also contribute to Trends, the Bank's monthly investment review. These publications help our staff to better understand recent or imminent market reactions and to offer you the most appropriate solutions for managing your assets.